Red Sox Prediction: Justin Turner

When Justin Turner was signed to a multi-year deal the day after former Red Sox DH J.D Martinez signed with Turner’s old team, the Dodgers, many in the baseball world were confused. “Turner and Martinez posted similar numbers in 2022,” they said. “Why wouldn’t they just bring back Martinez?”

Yet a keener Red Sox observer would understand that there are things Turner will bring to the 2023 Red Sox that Martinez simply couldn’t, the foremost of which being defensive versatility. While Martinez didn’t play an inning in the outfield in 2022 and likely never will again, Turner can still provide passable defense at third base and first base. This will allow the Red Sox to give Rafael Devers days off from the field while still keeping his big bat in the lineup, while also spelling Triston Casas against lefties. And when the Red Sox choose to keep both big players in the field, Turner still swings the bat well enough to deserve a DH role.

Let’s talk about the bat for a second, because Turner’s final 2022 numbers are quite misleading. His OPS+ (116), slugging percentage (.438) and home run total (13) were all his lowest in a non-Covid season since 2013. Over the hill, right? Not so fast. Turner's first half was unquestionably a disaster, but from June 21 on, he slashed .342/.411/.531 in one of the best stretches of his entire career. Compare that to Martinez, who slashed .229/.295/.379 over the exact same span. Martinez and Turner have mostly similar Statcast metrics, but Turner has the clear edge in strikeout rate (78th percentile to 29th), whiff rate (77 to 17), and chase rate (65 to 29). He also pulls the ball much better and more consistently than Martinez, who still insisted on trying to drive the ball into the deepest part of the ballpark despite clearly declining power. I fully expect Turner, who's spent his entire prime playing in the cavernous Dodger Stadium, to put up some of his best power numbers since his prime with the Green Monster working to his advantage.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that despite being three years older, Turner is a much better fit for this current Red Sox roster, and that’s without considering the leadership, professionalism and big-game experience he’ll bring to a team that absolutely needs it. He may not put up the numbers he had in his prime, but you can pencil him down for 600 really good at-bats.

Stat Predictions: .273/.346/.474 21 HR 77 RBI 2.3 WAR

Red Sox Prediction: Jorge Alfaro

The additions of Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida, along with the Rafael Devers extensions, are certainly the deals that will grab the most attention from this offseason, but sometimes it is the under-the-radar additions that turn out to be the best. We saw this firsthand last season with John Schreiber and Rob Refsnyder, two players who were viewed as depth pieces who turned out to be key contributors to the big-league club.

If there’s a leading candidate for this season’s Schreiber of Refsnyder, it has to be Jorge Alfaro. I, like many others, expected Alfaro to land a major league contract, and was pleasantly surprised when the Red Sox got him on a minor league deal. The tools are absolutely off the charts. He’s got powers for days, evident by a max exit velocity that ranked in the 97th percentile. He’s fast enough to rank in the 85th percentile in sprint speed, athletic enough to handle a corner outfield position, and has a strong enough arm to rank in the 96th percentile in pop time. Of all the free agent catchers, perhaps only Wilson Contreras could match Alfaro’s ceiling.

While Alfaro has always been immensely talented, putting his tools to good use has been the challenge. His plate discipline is just atrocious, as he has 566 career strikeouts against just 70 walks. Alfaro can drive the ball with the best of them, but that ability gets diluted when you strikeout a whopping 35.8% of the time, as he did in 2022. Alfaro got off to a smoking hot start last year, but a 5-46 stretch to finish the regular season cost him playing time in October and millions of dollars in free agency. On defense, his framing grades out as below-average, and he threw out only 5 of 30 attempted stolen bases despite his pop time.

Even with all that being said, when you compare Alfaro to his catcher competitor Connor Wong, it’s hard not to say that Alfaro has the clear advantage. Wong cannot match any of Alfaro raw tools and looked even more overmatched than Alfaro during his cup of coffee last September. Alfaro has experience, versatility and talent on his side, and with a .269/.310/.463 career slash line versus left-handers, is a much better fit to platoon with Resse Mcguire. So even though Wong will likely get the first shot, I expect Alfaro to take over the catching duties vs lefties at some point this season and add some much-needed thump to the Red Sox lineup.

Projected Stats: .231/.284/.391 11 HR 36 RBI 0.4 WAR

Red Sox Predictions: Rob Refsynder

You’d be forgiven if you weren’t celebrating in the streets when Rob Refsynder was called up from Triple-A Worcester last season. The 31-year-old journeyman had done little to inspire confidence during his five-year MLB career, slashing just .224/.310/.308 with six home runs entering the 2022 season. With Kiké Hernández landing on the IL and the Red Sox in desperate need of an outfielder, calling up Refsnyder seemed more like a last resort than any sort of impact move.

Over the second half of the season, however, Refsnyder not only thoroughly exceeded expectations, he became one of the Red Sox’s best players. He slashed .304/.386/.497 over 57 games and matched his career total with six longballs. He was especially effective against left-handed pitchers (.359/.411/.594), proving to be the perfect complement (or anecdote) to Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran.

As the calendar turns to 2023, the big question is whether Refsnyder can carry the momentum of his career year. Though his strikeout and walk numbers were nothing special, his average exit velocity would have ranked in the top third of all MLB hitters, ahead of guys like Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suarez and Bobby Witt. His .286 expected batting average and .472 expected slugging (based on quality of contact) indicate that while he may have benefited from a small amount of luck, he still was clearly an above-average hitter in 2022.

This is around where my 2023 projection lies. Is he going to hit like an MVP candidate again? Probably not. But can he provide really good at-bats, a little pop and passable defense at all three outfield spots? That seems realistic.

Stat Predictions: 73 games .276/.337/.436 7 HR 38 RBI 1.2 WAR