Red Sox Predictions: Rob Refsynder

You’d be forgiven if you weren’t celebrating in the streets when Rob Refsynder was called up from Triple-A Worcester last season. The 31-year-old journeyman had done little to inspire confidence during his five-year MLB career, slashing just .224/.310/.308 with six home runs entering the 2022 season. With Kiké Hernández landing on the IL and the Red Sox in desperate need of an outfielder, calling up Refsnyder seemed more like a last resort than any sort of impact move.

Over the second half of the season, however, Refsnyder not only thoroughly exceeded expectations, he became one of the Red Sox’s best players. He slashed .304/.386/.497 over 57 games and matched his career total with six longballs. He was especially effective against left-handed pitchers (.359/.411/.594), proving to be the perfect complement (or anecdote) to Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran.

As the calendar turns to 2023, the big question is whether Refsnyder can carry the momentum of his career year. Though his strikeout and walk numbers were nothing special, his average exit velocity would have ranked in the top third of all MLB hitters, ahead of guys like Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suarez and Bobby Witt. His .286 expected batting average and .472 expected slugging (based on quality of contact) indicate that while he may have benefited from a small amount of luck, he still was clearly an above-average hitter in 2022.

This is around where my 2023 projection lies. Is he going to hit like an MVP candidate again? Probably not. But can he provide really good at-bats, a little pop and passable defense at all three outfield spots? That seems realistic.

Stat Predictions: 73 games .276/.337/.436 7 HR 38 RBI 1.2 WAR