Red Sox Prediction: Jarren Duran

Oh boy, where to begin? In many ways, Jarren Duran’s up-and-down campaign perfectly encapsulated the topsy-turvy roller-coaster that was the 2022 Red Sox. After an unsuccessful cup-of-coffee in 2021 and a one-game cameo in May, Duran got the call to the show for good in early June following a torrid start in Worcester. Before long, Duran found himself in leadoff spot, and over his first month in Boston, he slashed .329/.380/.507 and converted on 5 of his 6 stolen bases. It’s no coincidence that Duran hot streak coincided with the Red Sox’s best month of the season, as his on-base skills and speed perfectly set the table for the sluggers behind him.

Then, as quickly as Duran put himself on the map, it all fell apart. His poor outfield routes began to get exposed, most infamously in an inside-the-park grand slam that Duran lost in the lights in a 28-5 loss to the Blue Jays. Duran’s offense dropped off as well, as he hit just .158/.223/.268 from July 7 through the end of the season. The likely final straw was when he argued with fans after a series of misplays in Kansas City. Duran would last just three more weeks with the big league club before getting optioned at the end of August.

When you throw out all the flash and the controversy, Duran is worthy of perhaps the most boring label you can give a baseball player: Fourth outfielder. There is no doubt the guy can fly, given that he ranked in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed and has converted on 9 of his 11 MLB stolen base attempts. He also grades out at above average in outfield jump and arm strength, indicating that he can handle a corner outfield position even if he is likely in-over- his head in centerfield.

The problem is, however, that he doesn’t get on-base enough to maximize his stolen base ability and doesn’t hit well enough to warrant every day at-bats at a corner spot. We now have 91 big-league games to evaluate Duran, and the results are a .219/.269/.353 slash line with just five home runs, 18 walks and 103 strikeouts. He’s hit 26 home runs in 128 games in Triple-A, but the power just hasn’t translated at all to the big leagues, as pitchers just keep pounded him with breaking and off-speed stuff. The one positive is that he cut his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate from 2021 to 2022, but at 28.3% and 6.3% respectively, those numbers are still well below-average.

Another problem is that there isn’t a clear spot for Duran on the current MLB roster. They already have two left-handed hitting outfielders in Masataka Yoshida and Alex Verdugo, not to mention Ramiel Tapia in Triple-A and Rob Refsynder provides way more value in the fourth outfielder spot. In all likelihood, Duran will continue to shuttle between Worcester in Boston, providing a little speed, a little excitement, and not much else.

Stat Predictions: .234/.296/.381 88 games 4 HR 22 RBI 6-8 SB 0.1 WAR