Red Sox Prediction: Corey Kluber

In their seemingly never-ending quest to acquire every 2017 All-Star, the Red Sox finally came to terms on a one-year deal with two-time Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber after years of reported mutual interest. After three straight injury-plagued seasons, the 36-year-old finally stayed healthy in 2022 and the results were… fine? A 4.34 ERA is nowhere near where he was at his peak, but he took the ball every fifth day and threw strikes, which is a lot more than most pitchers can stay.

At this point, there’s no mystery about what kind of pitcher Kluber is or how he is going to attack hitters. It’s the same five pitch-mix that he's always had: He throws three types of fastballs- cutter, sinker, and four-seam- while using his curveball and changeup to generate swings-and-misses. Yet while the Kluber of old used those pitches to simply overwhelm hitters, the older, savvier Kluber leaned on a 96th percentile chase rate to induce weak contact.

You could also make the argument that Kluber’s control is even better than it was during his prime. His 1.2 BB/9 was the best mark of his career and the third time he’s led the league in that category. In fact, this offseason, the Red Sox have acquired the starter with the lowest walk rate (Kluber) and the reliever with lowest walk rate (Chris Martin), the result of an organizational philosophy to throw better and more consistent strikes.

Unlike Martin, however, Kluber is going to rely heavily on his infield defense with his high ground ball percentage and low strikeout rate. It’s difficult to get excited about pitchers like Kluber, but I don’t think any fan is going to arrive at Fenway Park and be upset to see Kluber is the starting pitcher. He knows how to pitch, he knows how to manipulate hitters, and, most importantly, he knows how to win. In a 162-game season, having those types of guys is incredibly valuable.

Stats: 10-9 4.41 ERA 162 IP 1.7 BB/9 7.0 K/9