Red Sox Prediction: Bobby Dalbec

Of all the individual disappointments in the 2022 Red Sox season, this may be the biggest. I was all in Bobby Dalbec entering last season, mainly due to the terrific .275/.336/.580 slashline he posted after June 10, 2021. He had the look of a young player who was beginning to figure it out, and that he built enough of an understanding of the strike zone to let his plus-power play. A 30 home-run season in 2022 seemed like a baseline, with possible All-Star upside.

Not only did Dalbec not reach those lofty expectations, he took a drastic step backwards. He began the season in a 12-for-82 rut and did not hit his second home run until May 28 despite playing nearly every day. There were some signs of life, such as a .271/.343/.458 stretch from May 26 to July 9, but another slump in August earned Dalbec a demotion to Triple-A that would have been unthinkable at the beginning of the season.

It’s almost unfathomable how a player who looked like he was figuring out big-league pitching could take such a drastic step back. Just look at the falloff in some of the underlying numbers:

Average Exit Velocity

• 2021: 92.4

• 2022: 90.3

Expected Batting Average

• 2021: .236

• 2022: .216

Expected Slugging

• 2021: .522

• 2022: .379

Barrel Percentage

• 2021: 20.2%

• 2022: 11.8%

I always say that progress for prospects and young major leaguers isn’t always linear, but rarely does it take a complete 180 like this. There is still enough power where you can’t completely give up on him (even in 2022, he still ranked in the top quarter of all hitters in average exit velocity) but he no longer looks like an everyday player. A career .240/.348/.406 hitter against left-handed pitchers, Dalbec will likely begin the season as a platoon option for Triston Casas and a backup option for Rafael Devers, because for someone who is 6’4, 227, Dalbec is surprisingly athletic and versatile. I’m going to be an optimist and say he takes a small step forward from last season, considering he was substantially better from June on, but there’s just too much swing-and-miss in his game and too little of an approach to expect anything more than a volatile platoon player.

Stat Predictions: .226/.291/.428 103 games 11 HR 37 RBI -0.1 WAR